Jan. 27 2012 12:00 AM

38 percent of likely voters are undecided

filner6
Bob Filner is "this close" to Fletcher and Dumanis in recent poll.
Photo by Dave Maass

Today, San Diego Rostra posted results of a poll, commissioned by labor interests, of high-propensity voters in the San Diego mayoral primary election in June. The blogger, Jim Sills, said his post was based on "reliable sources," indicating that he had not seen the poll with his own eyes. Sills' sources gave him these numbers:

Carl DeMaio: 26 percent

Nathan Fletcher: 17 percent

Bonnie Dumanis: 16 percent

Bob Filner: 14 percent

Sills noted that those numbers included "leaners," which I assume means respondents who said they were leaning toward a particular candidate but weren't certain.

I, too, have not laid eyes on the poll, but those numbers closely match what I'd heard from several politicos. However, my own reliable source shed additional light on the "leaner" numbers:

Carl DeMaio: 22 percent, plus 4 percent leaning his way.

Nathan Fletcher: 15 percent, plus 2 percent leaning.

Bonnie Dumanis: 12 percent, plus 4 percent leaning.

Bob Filner: 13 percent, plus 2 percent leaning (making his total 15 percent rather than the 14 percent Sills reported).

In any case, Fletcher, Dumanis and Filner are all bunched up within the poll's 3-percent (plus / minus) margin of error, meaning that despite the crowing among the Fletcher camp today, it's impossible to say with certainty who's in second, third and fourth place among likely voters.

What's clear is that DeMaio has done a good job of getting his message out and that Filner has done a lousy job of distinguishing himself as the Democratic alternative to three Republicans in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans.

It's worth noting that, according to this poll (conducted in December, my source says, and not early January, as Sills reported), 38 percent of likely voters—more than a third—are up for grabs.


Calendar

  • Visit one of the 70 participating restaurants, bars, coffeehouses and nightclubs in town on this night and 25 to 50 percent of sales will go to local HIV/AIDS services and prevention programs. 
  • Anthony Bernal and Chris Ward, who are vying to replace Todd Gloria on the San Diego City Council, will discuss urban issues, such as parking, homelessness and new developments
  • The new exhibition designed by Dave Ghilarducci is made from hundreds of rolls of packing tape and bound together by layers of plastic shrink-wrap. Visitors can navigate their way through cocoon-like passageways...
  • The renowned Mexican black and white photographer presents an exhibition exploring the principal themes within three groups: "Bestiarium"," Fantastic Women" and "Silent Natures."
  • Presented by Pacific Arts Movement, the sixth annual mini film fest features 14 film programs from 10 countries that includes everything from docs to romantic tearjerkers. See website for full lineup and...
  • The San Diego County Bike Coalition hosts this monthly bike-in happy hour event to get biking residents involved in their communities and discuss bike projects planned for that specific community
  • Debunk some of the stereotypes surrounding cannibalism at this new exhibition that takes a hands-on approach to the subject. Includes video games and interactive activities where patrons will have to decide...
  • So Say We All's monthly storytelling night features stories about those jobs we took because we had to take a job. Featured readers include Allison Gauss, Annmarie Houghtailing, Cecile Estelle, and more
  • Artists from the all-abstracts group show will talk about their work and techniques. Artists include Edwin Nutting, Danielle Nelisse, Leah Pantea, Lenore Simon, and more
See all events on Thursday, Apr 28