David Bornfriend
Moonlight
With so much scandal, corruption and incompetence spewing out of Washington D.C. lately, the melodrama that is the Academy Awards seems somewhat quaint. Lacking in #OscarsSoWhite urgency, this year’s far more diverse competition has nearly drifted by without notice. Fittingly, the blandest frontrunner in years—a grating millennial mambo with bad singing about white people trying to save Jazz and resurrect classical Hollywood magic in a post-racial world—threatens to sweep the awards.
In keeping with my annual tradition of predicting the winners, you will find arguments for the major categories below. Follow my lead and you will surely be victorious in your office Oscar pool. Well, probably not, but still it’s always fun to tempt fate.
Best Supporting Actor:
It’s hard to bet against Mahershala Ali, whose pivotal performance in Moonlight provides a foundation for the three younger talents who come to embody the film’s dynamic central character. Still, Lion is a film that loves to piss me off, so don’t count out the efficiently annoying Dev Patel.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Should Win: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis’s subtly seismic turn in Fences often steals the show from her bombastic co-star, Denzel Washington, and she’s primed to take home Oscar gold. Her closest competition is Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea, whose small role nevertheless detonates whenever on-screen.
Will and Should Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Best Actor:
It’s almost comedic that Andrew Garfield was nominated for Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge over Martin Scorsese’s Silence, but I guess Oscar voters like aw-shucks Americana over conflicted Catholic determination. This is the year of Trump after all. It doesn’t matter, ultimately, because he and the other nominees don’t have a chance in hell to defeat Casey Affleck. Riding a wave of critic’s awards and industry prizes, the Manchester by the Sea star has recently come under scrutiny for past indiscretions involving the sexual harassment of multiple women, but the negative headlines will not deter the inevitable.
Will and Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress:
Please God, let Isabelle Huppert win. The French actress dominates every moment of Paul Verhoeven’s Elle with a salacious calm rarely witnessed on the big screen. Her diabolical performance will stand the test of time while Natalie Portman’s grotesque Jackie Kennedy and Emma Stone’s wide-eyed singing barista will slowly drift into the ether never to be remembered again. God, I hope Isabelle Huppert wins. But she probably won’t because the world is shit.
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Best Director:
Ah, Damien Chazelle. I hope word has finally reached you that I think Whiplash is the embodiment of evil. Your cutie pie musical La La Land isn’t nearly as egregious, and at times I kind of liked it. But damn if those cloying look-mom-I-can-fly long takes and your whimsical one-note understanding of film history doesn’t stick in my craw. I really hope you’ve watched Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea and the guilt is setting in. Thank them in your acceptance speech and I might feel slightly better.
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Should Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Best Picture:
By this point you’ve probably noticed I think La La Land is pretty mediocre. The film has its charms. Yet if you’ve experienced the sublime glow of Moonlight or the prickly burn of Manchester by the Sea, it’s unfathomable that this emotionally hollow fantasy about pursuing career over love is superior. Ugh. I’ve been disappointed before with Oscar, so what’s another year?
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Moonlight or Manchester by the Sea or Arrival or Hell or High Water
The 89th Academy Awards airs at 5:30 p.m. PST on Sunday, Feb. 26.